Crypto financial services firm Galaxy Digital is bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) if and when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approves a spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF).

According to Galaxy Digital’s research associate Charles Yu, the “approval for a US-regulated spot Bitcoin ETF will be one of the most impactful catalysts for the adoption of Bitcoin.”

Yu says that BTC could soar by double-digit percentage points in the first year of a spot Bitcoin ETF getting approved.

“We could see monthly returns gradually ramping down from +6.2% in the first month to +3.7% by the last month of the first year, resulting in an estimated +74% increase in BTC in the first year of an ETF approval (using 9/30/23 BTC price $26,920 as the starting point).”

Source: Galaxy

According to Yu, Bitcoin has a total addressable market size of $48.3 trillion in the US. He says that as of the third quarter, about 842,000 BTC, currently worth approximately $28.9 billion, were held in existing Bitcoin investment products such as exchange-traded products (ETPs) and closed-end funds.

Source: Galaxy

On the prospects for Bitcoin over the coming months, Yu says,

“Inflows from ETFs, market narratives about the forthcoming Bitcoin halving (April 2024), and the possibility that rates have peaked or will peak in the near term, all suggest that 2024 could be a big year for Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin is trading at $34,300 at time of writing.

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